Making the Economic Case
Our nation faces colossal dangers--the climate emergency (witness Helene), the threat to democracy, the loss of reproductive rights--but the election could well be determined by how undecided swing state voters feel about the cost of groceries.
Harris is now pretty much even with Trump in polls as to how she’d handle the economy. That’s progress, but still grossly unfair, given his extreme proposals, especially deficit-busting tax breaks for the very wealthy and huge new tariffs sure to boost consumer costs. As four hundred economists wrote last week:
Trump’s proposed policies risk reigniting inflation and threatening the United States’ global standing and domestic economic stability. Nonpartisan researchers have predicted that if Donald Trump successfully enacts his agenda, it will lower GDP growth and increase the unemployment rate.
The choice in this election is clear: between failed trickle-down economic policies that benefit the few and economic policies that provide opportunity for all. It is a choice between inequity, economic injustice, and uncertainty with Donald Trump or prosperity, opportunity, and stability with Kamala Harris, a choice between the past and the future.
Many Americans, especially young workers, are still very disturbed by the inflation of 2021-2022. I certainly sympathize with their economic stress and worry. But they shouldn’t just lash out and blame Biden and Harris. Inflation and recession hit every developed country after the pandemic. As LA Times columnist Jackie Calmes put it last week:
[Trump’s] big edge in voters’ perceptions about economic matters reflects in large part their dismay over the rise in inflation on Biden’s watch, and the higher interest rates set by the Federal Reserve to tame it. But inflation has been a global problem, mostly a consequence of the spurt in post-pandemic demand for goods. Had Trump been reelected in 2020, he would surely have faced rising prices as well.
The real question should be: What did Biden and Harris do in the face of inflation and recession? I think they did just the right things:
—With today’s terrific new job figures, the Biden full term total to date is now at 15.7 million. (11.3 million jobs were created just in his first three years, compared to 6.5 million in Trump’s three pre-pandemic years.)
—Wages have actually gone up more than inflation during Biden’s term.
—GDP growth was at 3% last quarter, and has just been revised substantially upward for 2021-2023 (explaining the wage increases).
—New business starts and prime-age worker participation have been elevated, with 1.3 job openings per unemployed person.
—Biden has been labor's best friend in decades. “His National Labor Relations Board is stemming the tide of unfair labor practices, requiring companies to bargain with their employees, and making it harder to fire workers for organizing.” Ask UAW President Shawn Fein, who wore a “Trump is a scab” t-shirt at the DNC.
—The “Federal Trade Commission and the Justice Department have become the most aggressive monopoly fighters in more than a half century." They’re going after Amazon, Google, and a wide range of other giant corporations.
—By signing the Chips and Science Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill, and the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden initiated an ambitious investment agenda in manufacturing and infrastructure that will create growth and opportunities for American workers for decades to come. The IRA has already led to the investment of hundreds of billions of dollars in clean, renewable energy.
—The deficit is trillions of dollars lower today than it was when Trump was in the White House.
—Median wealth is up 37% from 2020-2022. Median wealth for 18-34 year olds in this period more than doubled.
—Biden and Harris have dramatically improved the Affordable Care Act, making it more affordable, especially for middle-income citizens. Enrollment is now over 21 million, up from 12 million just before the pandemic to the financial advantage of all concerned.
There’s a reason our economy has been called “the envy of the world” by the Wall Street Journal and Atlantic. As Moody's Mark Zandi wrote yesterday:
With last week’s big GDP revisions, there is no denying it: This is among the best performing economies in my 35 years as an economist. Economic growth is rip-roaring, with real GDP up 3% over the past year. Unemployment is low at near 4%, consistent with full employment. Inflation is fast closing in on Fed’s 2% target—grocery prices, rents and gas prices are flat to down over the past more than a year. Households’ financial obligations are light, and set to get lighter with the Fed cutting rates. House prices have never been higher, and most homeowners have more equity in their homes than ever. Corporate profits are robust, and the stock market is hitting a record high on a seemingly daily basis.
Yes, we still have very serious problems, but next time you hear someone saying, “I don’t like the guy, but the economy was better under Trump,” speak up! Don’t let it pass! Make the case for Biden/Harris/Walz.
There are five weeks left. Everything hangs in the balance.
PLEASE SEND THIS ON TO FAMILY AND FRIENDS.
David